Jun 12, 2010

Actuarial Model World Cup 2010 Winner

In 'The Actuary June 2010', Greg Becker (actuary) and Arminder Kainth (annuities pricing analyst) present the outcome of an actuarial model they developed, to  predict the probability of a country winning the Fifa World Cup 2010.

With Brazil as a clear winner, here's the outcome:

Perhaps trading on the World Cup 2010 Bet Market can become a new interesting alternative for traditional investment categories....
Anyhow, let's hope (fingers crossed) that actuaries are right and Brazil, Germany, Italy and England all end in the semi-finals. In this case we'll ask both actuarial whiz kids to develop a new actuarial investment model to settle (for ever!) the everlasting bonds-stocks discussion....

Place your own (free) bet
Meantime if you want to place your World Cup bets for free, join The Actuary World Cup PredictorPro game in association with Star Actuarial. For your chance to win an iPad register at Predictorpro.
Start right away, because betting already started....

Used Sources:
- The Actuary: Article 'World Cup fever' (pdf)
- The Actuary:Who will win the World Cup?
- Free bet at Predictorpro

- Estimating the Real Rate of Return on Stocks Over the Long Term (2001)

- Pension Fund Investments: Stocks or Bonds? (2004)
- Social Insecurity? (2008)

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