May 8, 2009

Live Piracy Map

According to IMB Piracy attacks almost doubled in 2009 first quarter.

Pirating in the Gulf of Aden, transit way for a third of the world's commerce, set a record of 120 attacks in 2008. Estimates of ransom payments vary and are estimated at around $40 million last year.

Attacks, and ransoms, in 2009 are on a pace to top those records. In his column "Insurance companies' piracy policies can be a double-edged sword", David Greising -business columnist for the Chicago Tribune - states:

  • In the business world, risks create opportunities, so you shouldn't be surprised to know that the scourge of piracy on the high seas has led to a nifty innovation: pirate insurance.
  • Chicago-based Aon Corp. and other companies have begun offering policies to guard against the loss of ships, cargo or crews to pirates.
  • If shippers become more willing to make ransom payments because they'll have insurance to cover losses, it may only add to the economic booty that tempts Somalis into piracy in the first place.
  • One of the lasting lessons of the piracy epidemic is how some of the world's most powerful naval forces have been almost powerless against speedboat-driving outlaws from one of the world's broken-down states. It will be tough to solve the piracy problem so long as anarchy and economic deprivation persist in Somalia.

Nevertheless piracy insurance business is high profitable for companies like AON. So profitable that according to Workers World there are some pirates who don’t use firearms to seize vessels on the high seas.

Some even go further than that


IMB
The ICC International Maritime Bureau (IMB) is a specialised division of the International Chamber Of Commerce (ICC). The IMB is a non-profit making organisation to act as a focal point in the fight against all types of maritime crime and malpractice. IMB’s main task is to protect the integrity of international trade by seeking out fraud and malpractice.

IMB Live Piracy Map 2009
This map shows all the piracy and armed robbery incidents reported to the IMB Piracy Reporting Centre during 2009.
red-dot = Actual Attack yellow-dot = Attempted Attack purple-dot = Suspicious vessel

Sources: International Maritime Bureau,
Live Piracy Report, Piracy Map 2008, Piracy Map 2007

Any comment on where to find more information about the actuarial modeling of pirate risks (Kidnap and ransom insurance) and/or insurance quoting would be welcome.

May 6, 2009

Chinese Actuary - Computer - Crisis

One of the interesting aspects of the Chinese language is that words are like little pictures, pictograms or logographs, the so called 'characters'. Moreover, some words are a combination, or (better) a superposition, of several of those characters.

So the meaning of a Chinese word can be deducted by interpretation of the pictograms and relating them. And, as the saying is "A picture is worth a thousand words", you don't need to be an actuary to calculate the enormous expression-power of the Chinese language. Every word is like a book of words and expresses not only the rational meaning but also the embodied feeling (mood) that goes along with the the formal meaning.

The power of the Chinese language can be illustrated by three simple examples, the Chinese words for Actuary, Computer and Crisis:

1. Actuary
The Chinese word for Actuary is :精算师

Pronunciation: jing suan shyr

The Chinese word Actuary consists of three characters:
  1. Jing, 精, means Skilled or Elite
  2. Suàn, 算, means 'to calculate' or 'to count'
  3. Shyr, 师, a suffix meaning 'a profession of' or a skilled or 'qualified practitioner of certain professions'

So, as a consequence, a stripped and therefore 'shortcoming' translation of the Chinese word for actuary would be: 'a skilled and qualified calculator'

Sources: Masteringmandarin, Translation, Wei Liu Dictionary,
Actuary Translated: A statistician who computes insurance risks and premiums.

2. Computer
The pictogram on the right means "computer" in Chinese. Actually, it consists of two characters that literally mean "Electric Brain", which the Chinese read as "computer".

However, as you may notice, the two main characters each exist of several sub-characters that also contribute and add meaning to the word 'Computer'.

Source, and more info at: Ebrain



3. Crisis
With the current credit crisis ( 信贷危机 xìndài wēijī) in mind, let's look at the Chinese word for 'crisis'. It consists of two characters




So in Chinese crisis means something like





Crisis = Danger + Opportunity

Let's apply this to daily business life.

No matter how great the danger in a crisis is, it also means a change of circumstances that creates space for new opportunities. It's an art to spot those opportunities when you're in the middle of a crisis.

But what if you're caught in a storm crisis:





Golden Rules Crisis Risk Management
In terms of risk management: If you're caught in the storm (trouble) and can't get out, don't try to. Try to get to the eye of the storm, where it's calm.

So when you're in the middle of a (credit) crisis :
  • Don't run
  • Set time still (Let time do the work)
  • Keep your head together
  • Wait for the opportunity, no matter how hard it is or how long it takes

Some more tips on how to behave in crisis situations you'll find on



APPROACHING A CONFLICT SITUATION

May 4, 2009

Credit Default Swaps explained

Credit default swaps are actually an insurance against 'damage' on your asset portfolio.
Just watch Senior Editor Paddy Hirsch explane it.

Untangling credit default swaps from Marketplace on Vimeo.

SOURCE